Everyone Feels Certain. Championship Weekend Rarely Is.
Cold Weather, hot takes, and two games that won’t behave
Over the next 48 hours, the combination of blizzards, frigid temperatures, and even colder football takes will keep a large portion of the country trapped indoors. Before you end up brawling an old woman at Costco over a box of frozen pizzas, take a deep breath and realize that being snowed in for Championship Sunday is a small miracle in itself.
So stock up on beer, cook some Italian food, and prepare for the real battle — Sunday’s slate. Because while weathermen and ESPN “analysts” will deliver takes with absolute certainty, certainty is usually the first thing to fall apart on weekends like this.
Patriots at Broncos
Everyone is far too focused on Jarrett Stidham starting for the injured Bo Nix. Sean Payton had late-stage Drew Brees throwing for 4,000 yards despite being physically incapable of pushing the ball more than 15 feet downfield. Drawing up a simple game plan for “Stiddy” and asking the eight-year veteran to play competently enough to win is not nearly as far-fetched as people are making it out to be.
This is Stidham’s third season under Payton. He knows the offense, he’s had a full week to prepare, and he’ll be fine. If you’re looking for the lazy “backup quarterback, season over” narrative, I’d suggest getting your sports takes from homeless men or Craig Carton.
The story that actually matters here is that the façade of the Denver defense has completely faded. Had it not been for timely turnovers and a collection of Josh Allen fuck-ups, the Broncos would’ve been 50-pieced at home last week.
The Patriots get crushed for their weak strength of schedule, but is it possible this Denver defense is the product of playing equally feeble competition?
Denver fattened up on one-possession wins against the Titans, Jets, Giants, Raiders (twice), Commanders, and a Mahomes-less Chiefs team. Say what you will about New England’s opponents, but they rarely played with their food — and the result was a potential MVP quarterback. Meanwhile, Denver boasts a statistically solid defense that allowed 450 yards to Josh Allen on a bad day (understatement of the century).
I’m also not buying the “Patriots never play well at Mile High” storyline. Bill Belichick (and Tom Brady, for that matter) are off chasing fifth-year sorority tail. Prime Von Miller is not running out of that tunnel. This historical nonsense is irrelevant.
My focus is on how easily the New England running backs can rip off chunk plays. TreVeyon Henderson might end up hitting his head on the goalpost if he sees the same holes Denver allowed last weekend. While it may be tempting to further cement Drake Maye’s MVP case (votes already in, I know), Mike Vrabel would be wise to lean on the run game and protect a quarterback who is averaging almost a fumble per quarter this postseason.
Bottom line: If the Patriots avoid turnovers, they can absolutely put up the 30-plus points needed to outscore Stidham and company. But if this turns into a rock fight — or even a moderately high-scoring game — Denver is far more live than people want to admit.
Rams at Seahawks
Everyone knows the surface-level script here. Divisional rivals. Split the regular season series. Toss-up. Blah blah blah.
The crazy narrative in this game is just how universally disrespected Sam Darnold is. I’d call him polarizing, but that’s not accurate. The consensus seems to be that he still just flat-out sucks.
After flunking out of Adam Gase’s failed attempt at the Manning Passing Academy, Darnold has been passed around the league like a collection dish at church. I get it — his face is stupid and he got mono at 26 — but the guy has now posted back-to-back 14-win seasons on two different teams and is still used as Exhibit A for why Seattle can’t win a championship.
Darnold ranks fifth in the league in passing yards. He keeps winning games while people explain why those wins don’t count, usually while making the same stale, soulless ginger jokes.
Despite not doing his damage off-script, I imagine Kubiak and Darnold were licking their chops after watching the Rams’ secondary unravel in the second half last week. Expect Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to find success at all three levels and put points on the board Sunday night.
On the other sideline stands Matthew Stafford — not just top five in passing yards, but the league leader in 2025. Sean McVay wears a Super Bowl ring largely because of Stafford’s greatness, but the future Hall of Famer hasn’t played up to his standard this postseason.
Whether it’s a lingering finger issue from the Carolina game or just age showing up at inconvenient times, the 37-year-old has been uncharacteristically inaccurate in key stretches. McVay’s early-down pass obsession and near-total abandonment of the run nearly cost the Rams last week. He can’t repeat that mistake.
Of course, that’s easier said than done. The Rams are going to need points to win, and simply spamming Kyren Williams and Blake Corum probably won’t cut it against a dominant Seahawks defense.
Bottom line: The Rams can’t afford to fall behind early. The home crowd will become a problem, and I don’t trust an injured Stafford to engineer a double-digit comeback. Meanwhile, Darnold must avoid the catastrophic mistakes that defined the early part of his career. I don’t think he’s that quarterback anymore — but if everyone else is right, expect a heavy dose of Syndrome in your Twitter timeline.
In a season as wide open as any I can remember, all four semifinalists have absorbed their fair share of skepticism. But conference championships aren’t decided by hot takes, mainstream discourse, or the vibes you have on a Thursday afternoon.
Championship games are predictably unpredictable. They are decided by the thinnest of margins and will reward the side that remains composed, patient, and resists the urge to get too cute when the going gets tough. Who is going to the Super Bowl? I can’t wait to find out.
Stay warm. Savor each snap. Enjoy the games.
